Let's get one thing straight. I don't believe in the Oscars. Not anymore. Ok, they make the ceremony a money-making business, but that is not why. It is the voting system I don't agree on. To vote you must be a member of the academy. To be a member, or you are a previous nominee, or are invited, or submit an application that can be accepted by the board or not. The nominees are internal, that is, only the actors can nominate actors, only directors, directors, etc. But to vote for the win is everybody on everybody. So, presently, you have more or less 6.000 members, actors the most (there are 4 acting categories). There are much more technical people (sound, effects, etc) than there are directors or producers or writers, and so on. So you get that now the most commercial movie tends to beat the critically acclaimed, and some "injustices" occur, as the movie that wins best picture usually wins all the technical categories (like slumdog... c'mom! was that the best cinematography, sound, editing, etc?!) because people don't know on whom to vote so vote on the same. The only exception is in years where there is a major special effects picture (LOTR, Matrix.. yes, Matrix won 4 oscars, and this year Avatar). But do actors really know the difference between best sound effects and best sound? Other example is best soundtrack... usually wins a bad one, in a movie where it appears in a couple of scenes where the music is given the entire scene (slow motion, time transitions, without sound except music, just to showcase it). Both Gustavo Santaolalla's oscars for Babel and Brokeback had the minimum amount of time required to be nominated (between 15 and 20 min, and the other 1h30 of the score was SOURCE!), but won because in both movies it was given pro-eminence in key scenes, and people remember just that on leaving the theatre. A score hidden behind sound effects or dialogue, forget it, no-one will hear the cd. Other example is what happened with the Disney films, they were great and deserved the oscars, but won 6 times in 8 years because people thought they were voting on the songs, on Hakuna Matata, and not on the orchestra. There are other examples in other categories.
This being said, here is my prevision:
Best Picture (have seen 6 of the 10 nominees):
WILL WIN: the most difficult, commercial or critic: Avatar or Hurt Locker. In the end I think Locker, but I am terrible afraid that this year the 3D hype will nail it. Avatar is a great movie visually and action-wise, but a terrible movie in screenplay and acting and etc. A movie like this should not win this major award.
SHOULD WIN: Where the Wild Things Are (best film of the year!)
Best Actor (seen 4 of the 5)
WILL WIN: Jeff Bridges (the one I haven't seen, but has won all the major awards so far. Last year Mikey Rooney had won them also but lost the oscar, but this year I think Bridges will have it, because is his 5th nomination. Renner no chance although he nailed the role, Clooney and Freeman already have an oscar and Firth, well, doesn't deserve it, not for this one at least.
SHOULD WIN: Larry David for "Whatever Works" (yes!!!! Unfortunately comedy roles are out of the academy)
Best Actress (seen none)
WILL WIN: Sandra Bullock for "The Blind Side" (the best actress award is for actresses on the verge of 40 years of age as one last tribute before they disappear from major roles... nicole, julia roberts, etc, etc... and now sandra)
SHOULD WIN: can't say
Best supporting actor (seen 2 of 5)
WILL WIN: Christopher Waltz for "Inglorious Basterds"
SHOULD WIN: Christopher Waltz (the only fucking guy who deserves to be here!)
Best supporting actress (seen 3 of 5)
WILL WIN: M0'Nique for "Precious"
SHOULD WIN: haven't seen precious, her performance must be powerful (I never judge a movie I have never seen). For those I have seen I loved Evan Rachel Wood for "Whatever Works"
Best Directing (seen 4 of 5)
WILL WIN: Bigelow or Cameron. Bigelow the first women ever to nail the best director? Well, whatever way the best picture will go, I have to admit that I think that Cameron will nail this, because people will mistake directing for creating a universe and special effects...
SHOULD WIN: I hate to admit this but... it should have been Tarantino's year!
Best Original Writing (seen 4 of 5)
WILL WIN: Tarantino for Basterds (even if Locker wins picture, there is not much of screenplay, it is much more action-driven, although it is beautifully structured, but I grant that to directing, not screenplay)
SHOULD WIN: well... Basterds
Best Adapted Screenplay (seen 1 of 5)
WILL WIN: tough one.. Precious maybe, hard to say... don't know really
SHOULD WIN: I liked "Up in the Air", but then again, it was the only one I saw, so... Where the Wild Things Are should have been nominated!
Best Cinematography (seen 3 of 5)
WILL WIN: And now enters Avatar's domain. It will nail them all, I am absolutely sure
SHOULD WIN: probably Das Weisse Band (haven't seen it though). Remember this is cinematography!!!!!!!
Best Editing (seen 3 of 5)
WILL WIN: Avatar (...) maybe, just maybe, Hurt Locker
SHOULD WIN: This is editing, so I would say Hurt Locker, it had a great rhythm, it glued you to the "addiction of war"
Best Art Direction (seen 2 of 5)
WILL WIN: Avatar (a copy of an italian flm but who cares, right)
SHOULD WIN: Am curious about Parnassus, but it will only come to Portugal in a month... Avatar probably.
Best Costume Design (seen 1 of 5)
WILL WIN: No avatar here so...Nine? if we say commercial film, but probably a costume drama will win... Bright Star or Young Victoria. Maybe Bright Star because the audience will remember Piano
SHOULD WIN: sorry, no clue here, I haven't seen enough of the nominees
Best Make-Up (seen none)
WILL WIN: Unless there is a surprise, Star Trek, all the trekies will not let pass this opportunity
SHOULD WIN: again, can't say
BEST SCORE (seen 3 of 5)
WILL WIN: Giacchino's "UP" for those first 10 minutes where there is nothing but music and images. In that I have to agree that it was fabulous, but the rest of the score is plain, but as it is hidden by the sound effects and the dialogue no one cares. Win an oscar for 10 minutes of a 90 min score is unjust.
SHOULD WIN: Here yes, AVATAR, as a whole it is the best score, although horner usually repeats himself, and here was no exception
Best Song (seen 3 of 5)
WILL WIN: "The Weary Kind" from Crazy Heart.. country music, what else to win in America
SHOULD WIN: The Weary kind... just heard the 5 on youtube, it is really the best!
Best sound mixing (seen 4 of 5)
WILL WIN: Avatar
SHOULD WIN: Here yes, AVATAR (great to see that Transformers 2, that crap 10.000 times worse that the first, had a nomination, they could put that on the cover of the DVD...) :)
Best sound editing (seen 4 of 5)
WILL WIN: Avatar
Should WIN: Avatar (no argument here)
Best Visual Effects (seen 1 of 3)
WILL WIN: if Avatar doesn't win this 6 000 votes to nothing than there is something wrong
SHOULD WIN: do I really need to say something here?
Best Animated film (seen 2 of 5)
WILL WIN: unfortunately Up (it is not that good. The first 10 minutes are genial, I cried, there has never been such a well established character development, the rest... well, it is very thinly held, very thinly indeed, and the villain is ridiculous)
SHOULD WIN: The princess and the frog (great disney comeback, but I haven't seen the other 3)
Best foreign language film (seen none)
WILL WIN: Will Hanake be to inaccessible for the academy? Ajami for political reasons? can't say
SHOULD WIN: can't say. nothing from Portugal that's for sure!
In terms of documentaries I can't say, seen none, but I will guess just for the sake of it to see how it goes... totally eeny, meeny, miny, moe
Documentary Features: Food, Inc
Documentary short subject: The last campaign of governor Booth Gardner
Short film animated: Wallece and Gromit
Short film live action: the new tenats
On monday we will see if I know something about this or not! :)